[time-nuts] OT: eBay bidding question

David I. Emery die at dieconsulting.com
Thu Apr 26 23:01:59 EDT 2007


On Fri, Apr 27, 2007 at 10:33:30AM +1000, Neville Michie wrote:
> 
> One thing not mentioned yet re bidding,
> if no bid is lodged the seller is free to withdraw before the end.  
> This would be sensible for a $4000 item if it is only at $5 just  
> before the end.
> So a sniper may lose out because it never gets to the sale.
> It is best to put some bid on it even if you want to delay your last  
> bid.

	This is true, the seller can withdraw if there are no bids or
modify the description, minimums etc...  and some sellers do this if
they think the lack of bids indicates a probable very low price.

	However, the seller takes the risk doing this that there are one
or more smart folks lurking in the background prepared to snipe.   Most
auctions I participate in have at least two snipe or near-snipe bids at
least 30% and sometimes 200-300% higher than the total three or four
minutes before the close.   So a seller withdraws at his peril.  And I
have seen auctions where snipe bids appear raising the price from 5% of
market to 200% of market in the last 3 seconds.

	Smart folks snipe.  Period.   There is no other (legal and
ethical) strategy more favorable to the buyer - particularly if sniping
is possible and practiced.

	The danger in putting in a low placeholder bid is that this
alerts folks who might be prepared to snipe that there is at least one
competitor and they really have to go as high as they possibly can.  
Human nature makes this hard (if you value your wallet) as it is easy to
push a little less aggressively on the max if you think there is nobody
else there - EVEN on a snipe bid against other snipe bidders.

	And depending on the minimum bid (whether it is over $200) under
the new Ebay rules (and ALWAYS under the old rules) one's identity may
be disclosed as the temporary high bidder. This allows ones competition
to figure out a guess as to what one might ultimately bid based on
previous behavior (which can be found through the Ebay search functions
by searching by bidder screen name for bid and win histories and what
kind of items that screen name buys and sells from that screen name's
feedback history). Again this may cause the competition to raise their
bid, which of course costs one of you more depending on who bids the
most.

	And at the very least the bidder screen name and its associated
history  may be a clue as to whether there is another serious bidder
looking at the item or just a bottom fisher who never bids more than way
below market on anything.

	Certainly bids by someone known to be expert on some type of
item or from a savvy dealer who knows values are a good clue that the
item in question is worth buying - thus if you spot something good and
are known as someone  who knows what is good and what is junk you put
down a placeholder bid at your peril as it may alert lurkers to the fact
the listing is or might be worth bidding on.

	As for the auction bidding that confused some folks here - I
find the listing of bids pretty obvious to me... with nothing confusing
at all.

	At the risk of boring those who understand Ebay:


	Bidder 1 bid $365 max on 4/20 at 21:33:18.  Pretty obviously this
was over the minimum, not clear if there was a reserve or not.

	Bidder 2 bid $250 (which meant he was never the high bidder) on
4/21 at 16:38:56.    This meant the price listed for the item went to
$250 plus the bid increment around $250 or something like $252.50 with
bidder 1 still listed as winning.
	
	Bidder 2, realizing he was not winning, then immediately bid
$559.00 12 seconds later and became the high bidder at $367.50 or
thereabouts.

	He remained the high bidder until bidder number 3 bid $1250.50
at 4/21 17:19:52.   This made bidder 3 high bidder with a something like
$564 price listed until bidder #4 came along about 20 minutes later and
bid $1111.00.   At this point the price went up to $1131.00 or so with
bidder #3 still listed as winning the auction.

	About 4 hours later at 4/21 21:21:05 bidder 5 came along and bid
$2000.00. This made him high bidder with a price near $1270.50 listed.

	Then about 8 hours later bidder 6 (the winner in the listing so
far) came along and bid $4000.00.   This meant he was listed as the
winner (and remained so continuously from then onward) at a price around
$2040.00.

	Some time after that at 4/23 00:33:36 bidder 7 bid $2050.00
which did not make him leader, but raised the price to $2090.00 or
thereabouts.

	And then at what appears to be two days later for bidder 5,
bidder 5 apparently decided to try to find out what the max was (set by
bidder 6 at $4000, but presumably not known to bidder 5).   At 4/23
19:30:25 he bid $2200 which didn't win, then $2500 which didn't win at
19:30:32, and $2700 at 19:30:42 and then $2800 at 19:30:50 and $2900 at
19:31:00 and finally gave up at $3000 at 19:31:80.   At the end of this
the price listed was $3060 or thereabouts with bidder 6 still listed as
the winner.

	This sort of bidding COULD be shill bidding, but more probably
was someone trying to figure out what bidder 6 was bidding so he could
decide whether to give up on the auction or not.

	Finally at 4/25 00:49:30 bidder 8 bid the exact same $4000.00
that bidder 6 bid earlier (leaving bidder 6 the winner).   Ebay's
bidding algorithm allows and registers this bid - after all $4000 IS
more than the listed price of $3060 by MORE than the bid increment so it
is a perfectly legal bid even if not a winning one.  And if bidder 8 had
bid $4000.01 he would be the winner in this auction so far... thus it is
always wise to bid just a few pennies beyond some canonical number like
$4000 that might be someone's max.   The current price (if this is not a
completed auction yet) should be listed at $4080 or thereabouts.

	(The thereabouts in my discussion represents laziness on my part
in that I have not bothered to look up the exact bid increment values
Ebay uses at these various price levels and what the boundaries are
between the various increment bands).

	Now back to GPSDOs and Rubidiums - does anyone know whether the
Ebay special FEI programmable DDS Rbs are all the same (the Israeli
dealer and the TN dealer selling the same thing ?).   They appear to
contain a PIC and I wonder if the code in it is the same for all of them ?


-- 
   Dave Emery N1PRE,  die at dieconsulting.com  DIE Consulting, Weston, Mass 02493
"An empty zombie mind with a forlorn barely readable weatherbeaten
'For Rent' sign still vainly flapping outside on the weed encrusted pole - in 
celebration of what could have been, but wasn't and is not to be now either."




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